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Who will win this year’s Tour de France? Vote in the new reader poll

July
2

Will Lance Armstrong win number eight after his retirement of three years? How about his Astana teammate and current odds on favorite of the betting parlors in Europe Alberto Contador? Is it time for Australia to have it’s first winner in Cadel Evans or Michael Rogers? Could last year’s winner Carlos Sastre win back to back with different teams? Maybe Denis Menchov will do the grand tour double with the Giro and Tour? Or will Saxo Bank will bring one of the brothers Schleck to Paris as the winner. Two other America’s have stood on the third step of the podium in Paris, could Levi Leipheimer or Christian Vande Velde move up two steps?

The soap opera of Team Astana makes for an interesting story as they lead up to the main race of the season. Will all-American hero Lance Armstrong return triumphantly and have yet another amazing comeback story for his eighth win?  Or will the spurned new champion, Alberto Contador return to the top spot and win his second tour and fifth grand tour. Who will the team support or will it be divided? Will the Americans support Armstrong while the Spanish support Contaor? What about the quite Andreas Kloden who has placed second at the Tour? Will he ride for himself at this point or in support of his two-team leaders? Maybe the key is Johan Bruyneel. Can he really tell Lance to wait for Alberto? Would he? The team is also on very poor finical terms with it almost splitting a week ago. Armstrong and Johan had a sponsorship package by the name of Livestrong-Nike. Clearly Armstrong would have been the CEO while other reports had Contador and three other riders going to Garmin-Slipstream to work for Armstrong’s former Lt. Jonathon Vaughters.  The team is now selected and clearly shows Johan is in charge. It’s not Lance or Alberto, it’s Johan. He’s picked a strong team and left a couple of key people off. His last selections of Rast, Muravyev, and Paulinho does not really favor Alberto or Lance but should make for a more cohesive team of workers.

It seems that Astana will make it through this year but unlikely continue as sponsor next year leaving the door open for Lance to step into the ownership of  the team. With that some riders will need to ride for themselves to gain contracts for next year. Results like stage wins and top 20 placing at the Tour de France will get you a big contract, riding on the front to support a team leader while finishing 67 only matters if you plan on staying on the same team. Contador will most likely move to another team and out the shadow of Lance in 2010. Kloden will be cut free as well due to his constant connections to past blood doping, This sets up a difficult group of riders to manage, I’d not call it a team at all and that’s how Armstrong has one in the past with nine guys riding for Lance and Lance alone.

My top ten
1.    Cadel Evans (Silence-Lotto) – This is the only team that has a single goal of winning the Tour with one man and they will do it.
2.    Alberto Contador (Astana) – His talent will take him to second, but his team will come up short.
3.    Andy Schleck (Saxo Bank) – He could win, but he’s still a year or two away, plus a great team and one of the best directors. In Riis.
4.    Denis Menchov (Rabobank) – Hard to win the Giro and Tour.
5.    Carlos Sastre (Cervélo TestTeam)– He’ll miss Riis and his old team.
6.    Vladimir Karpets (Katusha)– He’s going to ride the wheels and find one attack.
7.    Michael Rogers (Columbia-Highroad) – This will be more of a team top ten and he’ll help his countryman during the climbs.
8.    Lance Armstrong (Astana)– This is still a great result for someone to have not raced three years.
9.    Roman Kreuziger (Liguigas) – Another youngster in the top ten.
10.    Fabian Cancellara (Saxo Bank) – look out – he cracks the top ten in the Tour and sets his sights on winning a grand tour next year.

The green or sprinters jersey will be a battle between the older Thor Hushovd (Cervélo TestTeam)–  and two young guns, Mark Cavendish (Columbia-Highroad) and American Tyler Farrar (Garmin-Slipstream). My pick is Farrar, since his teammate Christian Vande Velde is not on form to compete for the top three overall the team will focus on stage wins and the green jersey. ( Eds note – I didn’t include last years winner, Oscar Freire of Rabobank. He will be in the hunt again as well. )


The polka dot or mountain jersey is wide open this year. I’ll throughout these names, Jens – breakaway- Voight (Saxo Bank) , Sastre (Cervelo Test Team),  Devolder (Quick Step), Karpets (Katusha), Kreuziger (Liguigas) Arroyo ( Caisse d”Epargne), Moreau (Agritubel), Fédrigo (BBox Bouygues Telecom) and last Moncoutie (Cofidis). I’ll pick Fedrigo because he is French and on a French team.

What do you think? Vote in our poll and voice your opinion in the comments.

(AP Photos)

This entry was posted on Thursday, July 2nd, 2009 at 2:05 pm by Randall Wolf. Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post

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Randall Wolf Randall Wolf is Director of Photography at The Journal News/LoHud.com, and has ridden more than 80,000 miles on a bike during the past 35 years. Some of these miles include a three-week touring trip from Suburban Philadelphia to Nova Scotia and back at age 16 and a few years later a solo two-week trip to Montreal. In 1985, he photographed the first U.S.-based team in the Vuelta a Espana, a three-week professional cycling race throughout Spain. He has participated in professional teams and races throughout the U.S. including the national championship in Philadelphia, and Tour of Georgia. In the mid-Ô90s he competed as an amateur racer throughout the Northeast. Bike commuting was his choice of transportation while working in Baltimore and Toronto. He is a ride leader and member of the Westchester Cycling Club and Rockland Bike Club, and lives in Garrison with his wife.
About the authors
Robert Brum Robert Brum, an assistant metro editor for The Journal News/LoHud.com and The Rockland Express, grew up cycling the roads of Rockland County. He now lives in Queens and rides with the Long Island Bicycle Club. Brum logs between 2,000 and 3,000 miles a year cycling throughout the Northeast.
David Schloss David Schloss is the co-founder and president of the Rockland Bicycling Club. A lifelong cyclist and self-described bicycling addict, Schloss is also a professional writer, photographer and educator, he is also the director of a group that supports photographers, which allows him to travel the globe, sneaking in rides.
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